Кulliev Istam Yangimurodovich,
associate professor, Ph.D.
independent researcher of the Tashkent Institute of Finance.
email: istamkulliev@gmail.com
ORCID: 0009-0007-8138-127X
Abstract: The development of competition in the market of retail credit services of the Republic of Uzbekistan requires the improvement of lending practices of individuals. In commercial banks, based on the needs of individuals, it is necessary to make quick decisions in the offer of retail credit products and in the lending process. In the period before the global financial and economic crisis that occurred in 2007, the active spread of retail banking services was motivated by the decrease in profitability in other segments of the banking market and the existence of the retail credit services market for individuals that was not sufficiently absorbed by competitors. It is for this reason that in the conditions of the unstable development of the financial market, banks face the issue of managing the quality of the portfolios formed and fundamentally changing the retail lending policy. The increase in the share of overdue debts of individuals in commercial banks, the requirements for the adequacy of the bank’s own capital and reserves for covering risks on retail loans are increasing. It is very relevant to study the theoretical approaches of retail lending in banks, to analyze the processes of development of retail credit products, to determine the risk appetite and to develop directions for effective management of credit risks. In order to evaluate the effect of efficiency factors on the retail credit portfolio of commercial banks, the exchange rate, official and interbank interest rates, GDP deflator should be analyzed as exogenous factors. As a result of the analysis of changes in these indicators, it is possible to assess the degree of influence of the level of credit risks on the quality indicators of the retail credit portfolio. In this article, the practices of retail lending to individuals and the factors affecting it are statistically analyzed on the activities of ATB “Uzsanoatqurilish” and JSC “Aloqabank”. Factors affecting the retail lending activity of “Uzsanoatkurilish” ATB and JSC “Aloqabank” were taken as variables, such as income of the population, inflation, Central Bank refinancing rate, bank deposits, weighted average interest rates on deposits. Statistical analysis Python programming language pandas, numpy, seaborn, StatModels, scipy.stats. implemented using libraries such as matplotlib, statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots, scipy.stats. Also, according to the results of the statistical analysis, appropriate scientific proposals and recommendations were developed regarding the performance indicators of retail lending activities of banks.
Keywords: retail credit, deposit, refinancing rate, borrower’s purchasing power, credit risk, inflation, consumer price index, household income, mortgage loan, NPL, GDP, interest margin.