Sholdarov Dilshod Azimiddin ugli,
PhD, Associate Professor of Tashkent Institute of Finance,
Toshkent, Uzbekiston. Email: dilshodsh86@il.ru
Achilov Uygunjon Ulugbekovich,
Senior lecturer of Tashkent Institute of Finance,
Toshkent, Uzbekiston. Email: uygunachilov@gmail.com
Orcid: 0000-0001-6991-5629
Xalilova Shoxsanam Gayratjon qizi,
Senior lecturer of Tashkent Institute of Finance,
Toshkent, Uzbekiston. Email: xalilovash@tfi.uz
Abstract: In this article, an analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors on the tax revenues of the budget is carried out on the example of the local budget of Fergana region. In the research, generalization, grouping, logical and comparative methods of analysis, comparative analysis, statistics, perspective forecasting and grouping methods of scientific methods of studying economic reality processes are widely used. A brief review of the literature on structural changes of local budgets’ incomes, growth weights, and the influence of factors on them is presented. Factors affecting changes in local budget revenues were identified and their statistical indicators were studied. Based on the studies, a theoretical view was put forward. Descriptive statistics of revenues of the local budget of Fergana region, gross regional product of the region and a number of other macroeconomic indicators were formed, and their correlation coefficients were determined. The influence of such indicators as the number of production enterprises, the volume of investments in the economy on the tax revenues of the budget was studied through econometric modeling and conclusions were drawn. The reliability of the model assessing the effect of the volume of investments in fixed capital and the number of jobs in the economy on the tax revenues of local budgets was checked by econometric tests and its reliability was evaluated. It was determined that there is no autocorrelation in the model by Darbin-Watson test.
Key words: economy, budget policy, local budget, financial stability, tax, tax policy, budget revenues, taxable income, tax-free income, capital.