Izbosarov Boburjon Bakhriddinovich,
Tashkent Institute of Finance
Associate Professor of “Department of Banking”, PhD
Email:boburbekizbosarov@gmail.com, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0763-073X
Abstract: The essence of the factors affecting the liquidity of commercial banks, their positive and negative aspects, and the analysis of this process are explained in detail in the article. The article analyzed scientific works and educational literature of foreign scientists on econometric modeling of liquidity of commercial banks. In the article, for the first time, we model the factors affecting the liquidity of commercial banks using the maximum likelihood method instead of the least squares method. In turn, this is the basis for the scientific novelty of the work. The maximum likelihood method was first used in scientific research by Carl Friedrich Gauss, Pierre Simon Laplace, Torvard Tillar. However, this method was widely used between 1912 and 1922. Ronal Fisher, who is considered one of the founders of econometrics, explained in his research the advantages of this method, as well as its differences from least squares. Liquidity provision in commercial banks is positively or negatively affected by the high or low volume of deposits, issued securities and loans from other banks, while high-risk assets have a negative effect. In recent years, the weakness of the monetary policy of the Central Bank and insufficient use of market principles in the management of the economy, the increase in the share of high-risk assets in the balance sheets of commercial banks have caused a number of problems in ensuring the liquidity of commercial banks. Financial reports of more than 865 branches of 33 commercial banks in Uzbekistan for 2010-2020 were taken as a database. As a result of our research, it was found that “unstable financial resources cause the formation of high-risk assets”, low quality of bank assets and “weak diversification”, high level of “transformational risk” have a negative impact on liquidity provision. For our analysis, the resulting symbol (y) was chosen as the liquid assets of banks, and seven factor symbols were chosen: the investment volume of banks, the amount of loans in banks, demand deposits, time deposits, savings deposits, issued securities, interbank loans. The data are presented in time sections and compiled by the author for quarters. In the process of scientific research, the main factors affecting commercial banks were determined.
Key words: commercial banks, liquidity of commercial banks, econometric modeling, least squares method, Maximum likelihood method, deposits, loans.